Canadian and Australian scientists have released a research paper projecting that climate change would be directly responsible for one billion fatalities in the next century.
The authors cite a scientific consensus after reviewing 180 papers linking climate change and mortality, finding that one person loses their life for every 1,000 tons of fossil fuel consumed.
An article in the journal Energies claims that one person’s future is sacrificed for every thousand tons of fossil carbon burnt today. Doing the math, the researchers claim a billion people would die prematurely for about a century if a trillion tons of carbon were produced, causing a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature.
Forecasts put the world population at about 10 billion in the year 2100. The research authors say this would lead to a 10% increase in deaths from global warming.
The research claims that a 10-degree Celsius rise in global mean surface temperature from pre-industrial levels would result from burning all five trillion tons of fossil carbon in the Earth’s crust.
If we consider the scientific consensus of the 1,000-ton rule and study the facts, Western University’s Joshua Pearce claims that AGW might cause a billion premature deaths in the next century. We need to do something. Further, we must move quickly.
The analysis hints that the total number of lives lost to AGW will reach 100 million, or one million lives lost annually for a century. Suppose present mortality rates from AGW magically remain constant at around one million per year, which may have already been achieved. In that case, this is considered an extreme best-case scenario.
Despite no proven fatalities attributable to climate change, the research authors say that over 3,000 people die every day as a result.
Further, the overall decline in weather-related fatalities since the turn of the last century implies that forecasting an abrupt reversal of this trend would call for a scientific explanation rather than the improbable “1000-ton rule.”
Researchers gloss over that annual mortality due to cold weather is almost ten times higher than those attributable to high temperatures. As a result, it seems that milder climates could reduce weather-related fatalities.