A former Massachusetts GOP official has angered the Trump campaign by predicting that the former President will lose in New Hampshire. Tom Mountain made the claim during an email to fellow Republican volunteers, in which he said the Granite State was “no longer a battleground state.” He added that Trump would lose the state “by an even higher margin” than in 2016 and 2020.
The email, published in the Boston Globe, also advised that campaigning should end in New Hampshire and that Mr. Trump should not travel there or send representatives.
In response, senior Trump adviser Brian Hughes announced that Mr. Mountain would “no longer have any involvement” in the national campaign. Hughes said Mountain had presented a “ridiculous misrepresentation of our ongoing operation in New Hampshire.”
Subsequent media reports indicate that Mountain described a change in New Hampshire, prompted by Joe Biden’s withdrawal and Kamala Harris’s elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket. Biden was supported by 82% of Democratic voters, but Harris increased this to 94%. Mr. Mountain suggested that national campaigners refocus their efforts on Pennsylvania, which he described as “the nearest battleground state.”
While the Trump campaign insists the Granite State remains “in play,” analysts and surveys tend to disagree. Polling shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has a significant lead over the former President at 50.2% to Trump’s 43%. Across various surveys, Harris’s lead remains steady at between 5% and 7%.
Nevertheless, the former President’s spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that the Republican’s campaign team “maintains an on-the-ground presence,” and Trump looks forward to retaking the state for Republicans in November.
New Hampshire was previously a GOP stronghold, but the last Republican candidate to win the state was George W. Bush in 2000. US politics professor Christopher Phelps told journalists that while “anything is possible,” the chances of a Trump victory in the state are low. He noted that New Hampshire still elects Republicans to some offices, “but like the rest of the New England region, it has shifted toward the Democrats in national-level contests.”
Mr. Phelps suggested that Trump’s time would be better spent focusing on North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, where “he has more serious problems.”
