Liz Cheney Running In 2024 Would Hurt Democrats The Most, Research Shows

( Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican from Wyoming, has vowed to do “whatever it takes to guarantee Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office,” which could include launching her own White House campaign.

She said last week, “I am thinking about it.”

But according to a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, Cheney could accomplish the reverse if she decided to run as an independent for president in 2024.

She has the power to tip the election in Trump’s favor.

The survey of 1,563 American adults was conducted from August 18 to August 22 — immediately following Cheney’s roughly 40 percentage point defeat to a Trump-backed opponent in last Tuesday’s Wyoming House primary.

According to the study, President Biden would have a 4-point advantage over Donald Trump among registered voters if the 2024 election were held today. His margin would be 46% to 42%.

In contrast, Trump would unexpectedly surge to an 8-point lead over Biden in a three-way contest with Cheney on the ballot as an independent, 40% to 32%.

With only 11% of the vote, Cheney is in last place in that scenario. The issue for Biden is that almost all of Cheney’s votes are cast against him, and there are enough to give Trump the victory theoretically.

The time has not yet come to label Cheney as a spoiler. For example, it’s not apparent if she would run at all, or if she does, if she would go so far as to run as an independent in the general election. She might choose to oppose Trump in the Republican primary, then withdraw and support the Democratic candidate or remain neutral.
Of course, we also have no idea how the national political scene will be in 2024 or whether Trump and Biden will decide to run again.

Only 6% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would vote for Cheney in a hypothetical three-way GOP primary. 78% of Trump supporters reject a Cheney run, while 35% of Biden supporters do. When compared one-on-one, Trump defeats Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by 18 points (49% to 31%).