Democrats’ Chances Of Beating GOP In Midterms Revealed

( At the beginning of the year, it seemed as if there would be an incredibly massive red wave. Some Republican commentators are still chanting that such will occur. But the polls are reflecting a different story that was seen even just a few months ago as Biden’s approval ratings were in the gutter and Republicans were leading by near double digits.

Now, however, with the midterm elections looming less than a month away from November 8, Democrats who were hoping to keep or even expand their majority in Congress are nearly tied with Republicans.

Democrats reportedly hold a 0.9 lead over Republicans in the generic ballot, which asks voters whether they would prefer a Democrat or Republican representative in Congress. 45.4% of voters prefer a Democrat, whereas 44.5% prefer a Republican, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Republicans are still projected to win the House back, despite the recent polling showing Democrats doing better. The numbers began to drop for Republicans after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and Democrats pushed through their largest spending bill yet, the $740 billion so-called Inflation Reduction Act which focuses on green energy, health care benefits, and tax reform.

Democrats currently hold a majority of 220 seats in the House compared with Republicans’ 212 seats. Republicans need only to flip six seats to win the majority of 218 districts, according to Newsweek. Biden narrowly won many of the suburban districts in which seats are up for grabs.

One race seen as a bellwether is in Virginia’s Second Congressional District between Democratic incumbent Elaine Luria, who was first elected during the 2018 blue wave, and Republican Jen Kiggans. The district was won by Biden by 3.1 points ad is seen as a tossup with Kiggans winning the district 51% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight’s algorithm.

But even in areas where Biden won by a large margin, Republicans are looking to flip. In Oregon’s Fifth Congressional District Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinne is facing Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who wins 54% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Democrats are favored to hold the Senate, with key races to look out for in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Senate currently is made up of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. With Vice President Kamala Harris, Democrats functionally have 51 seats.